can estimate parameters of this line, such as its slope and intercept from the GLM. From highschool algebra, recall that straight lines can be represented using the mathematical equation y = mx + c, where m is the slope of the straight line (how much does y change for unit change in x) and c is the intercept term (what is the value of y when x is zero). In GLM, this equation is represented formally as: y = β0 + β1 x + ε where β0 is the slope, β1 is the intercept term, and ε is the error term. ε represents the deviation of actual observations from their estimated values, since most observations are close to the line but do not fall exactly on the line (i.e., the GLM is not perfect). Note that a linear model can have more than two predictors. To visualize a linear model with two predictors, imagine a threedimensional cube, with the outcome (y) along the vertical axis, and the two predictors (say, x1 and x2) along the two horizontal axes along the base of the cube. A line that describes the relationship between two or more variables is called a regression line, β0 and β1 (and other beta values) are called regression coefficients, and the process of estimating regression coefficients is called regression analysis. The GLM for regression analysis with n predictor variables is: y = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + β3 x3 + … + βn xn + ε In the above equation, predictor variables xi may represent independent variables or covariates (control variables). Covariates are variables that are not of theoretical interest but may have some impact on the dependent variable y and should be controlled, so that the residual effects of the independent variables of interest are detected more precisely. Covariates capture systematic errors in a regression equation while the error term (ε) captures random errors. Though most variables in the GLM tend to be interval or ratio-scaled, this does not have to be the case. Some predictor variables may even be nominal variables (e.g., gender: male or female), which are coded as dummy variables. These are variables that can assume one of only two possible values: 0 or 1 (in the gender example, “male” may be designated as 0 and “female” as 1 or vice versa). A set of n nominal variables is represented using n–1 dummy variables. For instance, industry sector, consisting of the agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors, may be represented using a combination of two dummy variables (x1, x2), with (0, 0) for agriculture, (0, 1) for manufacturing, and (1, 1) for service. It does not matter which level of a nominal variable is coded as 0 and which level as 1, because 0 and 1 values are treated as two distinct groups (such as treatment and control groups in an experimental design), rather than as numeric quantities, and the statistical parameters of each group are estimated separately. The GLM is a very powerful statistical tool because it is not one single statistical method, but rather a family of methods that can be used to conduct sophisticated analysis with different types and quantities of predictor and outcome variables. If we have a dummy predictor variable, and we are comparing the effects of the two levels (0 and 1) of this dummy variable on the outcome variable, we are doing an analysis of variance (ANOVA). If we are doing ANOVA while controlling for the effects of one or more covariate, we have an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). We can also have multiple outcome variables (e.g., y1, y1, … yn), which are represented using a “system of equations” consisting of a different equation for each outcome variable (each with its own unique set of regression coefficients). If multiple outcome variables are modeled as being predicted by the same set of predictor variables, the resulting analysis is called multivariate regression. If we are doing ANOVA or ANCOVA analysis with multiple outcome variables, the resulting analysis is a multivariate ANOVA (MANOVA) or multivariate ANCOVA (MANCOVA) respectively. If we model the outcome in one regression equation as a 132 | S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h predictor in another equation in an interrelated system of regression equations, then we have a very sophisticated type of analysis called structural equation modeling. The most important problem in GLM is model specification, i.e., how to specify a regression equation (or a system of equations) to best represent the phenomenon of interest. Model specification should be based on theoretical considerations about the phenomenon being studied, rather than what fits the observed data best. The role of data is in validating the model, and not in its specification. Two-Group Comparison One of the simplest inferential analyses is comparing the post-test outcomes of treatment and control group subjects in a randomized post-test only control group design, such as whether students enrolled to a special program in mathematics perform better than those in a traditional math curriculum. In this case, the predictor variable is a dummy variable (1=treatment group, 0=control group), and the outcome variable, performance, is ratio scaled (e.g., score of a math test following the special program). The analytic technique for this simple design is a one-way ANOVA (one-way because it involves only one predictor variable), and the statistical test used is called a Student’s t-test (or t-test, in short). The t-test was introduced in 1908 by William Sealy Gosset, a chemist working for the Guiness Brewery in Dublin, Ireland to monitor the quality of stout – a dark beer popular with 19th century porters in London. Because his employer did not want to reveal the fact that it was using statistics for quality control, Gosset published the test in Biometrika using his pen name “Student” (he was a student of Sir Ronald Fisher), and the test involved calculating the value of t, which was a letter used frequently by Fisher to denote the difference between two groups. Hence, the name Student’s t-test, although Student’s identity was known to fellow statisticians. The t-test examines whether the means of two groups are statistically different from each other (non-directional or two-tailed test), or whether one group has a statistically larger (or smaller) mean than the other (directional or one-tailed test). In our example, if we wish to examine whether students in the special math curriculum perform better than those in traditional curriculum, we have a one-tailed test. This hypothesis can be stated as: H0: μ1 ≤ μ2 (null hypothesis) H1: μ1 > μ2 (alternative hypothesis) where μ1 represents the mean population performance of students exposed to the special curriculum (treatment group) and μ2 is the mean population performance of students with traditional curriculum (control group). Note that the null hypothesis is always the one with the “equal” sign, and the goal of all statistical significance tests is to reject the null hypothesis. How can we infer about the difference in population means using data from samples drawn from each population? From the hypothetical frequency distributions of the treatment and control group scores in Figure 15.2, the control group appears to have a bell-shaped (normal) distribution with a mean score of 45 (on a 0-100 scale), while the treatment group appear to have a mean score of 65. These means look different, but they are really sample means ( ), which may differ from their corresponding population means (μ) due to sampling error. Sample means are probabilistic estimates of population means within a certain confidence interval (95% CI is sample mean + two standard errors, where standard error is the standard deviation of the distribution in sample means as taken from infinite samples of the population. Hence, statistical significance of population means depends not only on sample Q u a n t i t a t i v e A n a l y s i s : I n f e r e n t i a l S t a t i s t i c s | 133 mean scores, but also on the standard error or the degree of spread in the frequency distribution of the sample means. If the spread is large (i.e., the two bell-shaped curves have a lot of overlap), then the 95% CI of the two means may also be overlapping, and we cannot conclude with high probability (p<0.05) that that their corresponding population means are significantly different. However, if the curves have narrower spreads (i.e., they are less overlapping), then the CI of each mean may not overlap, and we reject the null hypothesis and say that the population means of the two groups are significantly different at p<0

Quantitative Analysis: Inferential Statistics Inferential statistics are the statistical procedures that are used to reach conclusions about associations between variables. They differ from descriptive statistics in that they are explicitly designed to test hypotheses. Numerous statistical procedures fall in this category, most of which are supported by modern statistical software such as SPSS and SAS. This chapter provides a short primer on only the most basic and frequent procedures; readers are advised to consult a formal text on statistics or take a course on statistics for more advanced procedures. Basic Concepts British philosopher Karl Popper said that theories can never be proven, only disproven. As an example, how can we prove that the sun will rise tomorrow? Popper said that just because the sun has risen every single day that we can remember does not necessarily mean that it will rise tomorrow, because inductively derived theories are only conjectures that may or may not be predictive of future phenomenon. Instead, he suggested that we may assume a theory that the sun will rise every day without necessarily proving it, and if the sun does not rise on a certain day, the theory is falsified and rejected. Likewise, we can only reject hypotheses based on contrary evidence but can never truly accept them because presence of evidence does not mean that we may not observe contrary evidence later. Because we cannot truly accept a hypothesis of interest (alternative hypothesis), we formulate a null hypothesis as the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, and then use empirical evidence to reject the null hypothesis to demonstrate indirect, probabilistic support for our alternative hypothesis. A second problem with testing hypothesized relationships in social science research is that the dependent variable may be influenced by an infinite number of extraneous variables and it is not plausible to measure and control for all of these extraneous effects. Hence, even if two variables may seem to be related in an observed sample, they may not be truly related in the population, and therefore inferential statistics are never certain or deterministic, but always probabilistic. How do we know whether a relationship between two variables in an observed sample is significant, and not a matter of chance? Sir Ronald A. Fisher, one of the most prominent statisticians in history, established the basic guidelines for significance testing. He said that a statistical result may be considered significant if it can be shown that the probability of it being rejected due to chance is 5% or less. In inferential statistics, this probability is called the p- 130 | S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h value, 5% is called the significance level (α), and the desired relationship between the p-value and α is denoted as: p≤0.05. The significance level is the maximum level of risk that we are willing to accept as the price of our inference from the sample to the population. If the p-value is less than 0.05 or 5%, it means that we have a 5% chance of being incorrect in rejecting the null hypothesis or having a Type I error. If p>0.05, we do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or accept the alternative hypothesis. We must also understand three related statistical concepts: sampling distribution, standard error, and confidence interval. A sampling distribution is the theoretical distribution of an infinite number of samples from the population of interest in your study. However, because a sample is never identical to the population, every sample always has some inherent level of error, called the standard error. If this standard error is small, then statistical estimates derived from the sample (such as sample mean) are reasonably good estimates of the population. The precision of our sample estimates is defined in terms of a confidence interval (CI). A 95% CI is defined as a range of plus or minus two standard deviations of the mean estimate, as derived from different samples in a sampling distribution. Hence, when we say that our observed sample estimate has a CI of 95%, what we mean is that we are confident that 95% of the time, the population parameter is within two standard deviations of our observed sample estimate. Jointly, the p-value and the CI give us a good idea of the probability of our result and how close it is from the corresponding population parameter. General Linear Model Most inferential statistical procedures in social science research are derived from a general family of statistical models called the general linear model (GLM). A model is an estimated mathematical equation that can be used to represent a set of data, and linear refers to a straight line. Hence, a GLM is a system of equations that can be used to represent linear patterns of relationships in observed data. Figure 15.1. Two-variable linear model The simplest type of GLM is a two-variable linear model that examines the relationship between one independent variable (the cause or predictor) and one dependent variable (the effect or outcome). Let us assume that these two variables are age and self-esteem respectively. The bivariate scatterplot for this relationship is shown in Figure 15.1, with age (predictor) along the horizontal or x-axis and self-esteem (outcome) along the vertical or y-axis. From the scatterplot, it appears that individual observations representing combinations of age and selfesteem generally seem to be scattered around an imaginary upward sloping straight line.

The easiest way to test for the above hypothesis is to look up critical values of r from statistical tables available in any standard text book on statistics or on the Internet (most software programs also perform significance testing). The critical value of r depends on our desired significance level (α = 0.05), the degrees of freedom (df), and whether the desired test is a one-tailed or two-tailed test. The degree of freedom is the number of values that can vary freely in any calculation of a statistic. In case of correlation, the df simply equals n – 2, or for the data in Table 14.1, df is 20 – 2 = 18. There are two different statistical tables for one-tailed and two-tailed test. In the two-tailed table, the critical value of r for α = 0.05 and df = 18 is 0.44. For our computed correlation of 0.79 to be significant, it must be larger than the critical value of 0.44 or less than -0.44. Since our computed value of 0.79 is greater than 0.44, we conclude that there is a significant correlation between age and self-esteem in our data set, or in other words, the odds are less than 5% that this correlation is a chance occurrence. Therefore, we can reject the null hypotheses that r ≤ 0, which is an indirect way of saying that the alternative hypothesis r > 0 is probably correct. Most research studies involve more than two variables. If there are n variables, then we will have a total of n*(n-1)/2 possible correlations between these n variables. Such correlations are easily computed using a software program like SPSS, rather than manually using the formula for correlation (as we did in Table 14.1), and represented using a correlation matrix, as shown in Table 14.2. A correlation matrix is a matrix that lists the variable names along the first row and the first column, and depicts bivariate correlations between pairs of variables in the appropriate cell in the matrix. The values along the principal diagonal (from the top left to the bottom right corner) of this matrix are always 1, because any variable is always perfectly correlated with itself. Further, since correlations are non-directional, the correlation between variables V1 and V2 is the same as that between V2 and V1. Hence, the lower triangular matrix (values below the principal diagonal) is a mirror reflection of the upper triangular matrix (values above the principal diagonal), and therefore, we often list only the lower triangular matrix for simplicity. If the correlations involve variables measured using interval scales, then this specific type of correlations are called Pearson product moment correlations. Another useful way of presenting bivariate data is cross-tabulation (often abbreviated to cross-tab, and sometimes called more formally as a contingency table). A cross-tab is a table that describes the frequency (or percentage) of all combinations of two or more nominal or categorical variables. As an example, let us assume that we have the following observations of gender and grade for a sample of 20 students, as shown in Figure 14.3. Gender is a nominal variable (male/female or M/F), and grade is a categorical variable with three levels (A, B, and C). A simple cross-tabulation of the data may display the joint distribution of gender and grades (i.e., how many students of each gender are in each grade category, as a raw frequency count or as a percentage) in a 2 x 3 matrix. This matrix will help us see if A, B, and C grades are equally 126 | S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h distributed across male and female students. The cross-tab data in Table 14.3 shows that the distribution of A grades is biased heavily toward female students: in a sample of 10 male and 10 female students, five female students received the A grade compared to only one male students. In contrast, the distribution of C grades is biased toward male students: three male students received a C grade, compared to only one female student. However, the distribution of B grades was somewhat uniform, with six male students and five female students. The last row and the last column of this table are called marginal totals because they indicate the totals across each category and displayed along the margins of the table. Table 14.2. A hypothetical correlation matrix for eight variables Table 14.3. Example of cross-tab analysis Although we can see a distinct pattern of grade distribution between male and female students in Table 14.3, is this pattern real or “statistically significant”? In other words, do the above frequency counts differ from that that may be expected from pure chance? To answer this question, we should compute the expected count of observation in each cell of the 2 x 3 cross-tab matrix. This is done by multiplying the marginal column total and the marginal row total for each cell and dividing it by the total number of observations. For example, for the male/A grade cell, expected count = 5 * 10 / 20 = 2.5. In other words, we were expecting 2.5 male students to receive an A grade, but in reality, only one student received the A grade. Whether this difference between expected and actual count is significant can be tested using a chi-square test. The chi-square statistic can be computed as the average difference between 

Bivariate Analysis Bivariate analysis examines how two variables are related to each other. The most common bivariate statistic is the bivariate correlation (often, simply called “correlation”), which is a number between -1 and +1 denoting the strength of the relationship between two variables. Let’s say that we wish to study how age is related to self-esteem in a sample of 20 respondents, i.e., as age increases, does self-esteem increase, decrease, or remains unchanged. If self-esteem increases, then we have a positive correlation between the two variables, if selfesteem decreases, we have a negative correlation, and if it remains the same, we have a zero correlation. To calculate the value of this correlation, consider the hypothetical dataset shown in Table 14.1. Q u a n t i t a t i v e A n a l y s i s : D e s c r i p t i v e S t a t i s t i c s | 123 Figure 14.2. Normal distribution Table 14.1. Hypothetical data on age and self-esteem The two variables in this dataset are age (x) and self-esteem (y). Age is a ratio-scale variable, while self-esteem is an average score computed from a multi-item self-esteem scale measured using a 7-point Likert scale, ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree.” The histogram of each variable is shown on the left side of Figure 14.3. The formula for calculating bivariate correlation is: where rxy is the correlation, x and y are the sample means of x and y, and sx and sy are the standard deviations of x and y. The manually computed value of correlation between age and self-esteem, using the above formula as shown in Table 14.1, is 0.79. This figure indicates 124 | S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h that age has a strong positive correlation with self-esteem, i.e., self-esteem tends to increase with increasing age, and decrease with decreasing age. Such pattern can also be seen from visually comparing the age and self-esteem histograms shown in Figure 14.3, where it appears that the top of the two histograms generally follow each other. Note here that the vertical axes in Figure 14.3 represent actual observation values, and not the frequency of observations (as was in Figure 14.1), and hence, these are not frequency distributions but rather histograms. The bivariate scatter plot in the right panel of Figure 14.3 is essentially a plot of self-esteem on the vertical axis against age on the horizontal axis. This plot roughly resembles an upward sloping line (i.e., positive slope), which is also indicative of a positive correlation. If the two variables were negatively correlated, the scatter plot would slope down (negative slope), implying that an increase in age would be related to a decrease in self-esteem and vice versa. If the two variables were uncorrelated, the scatter plot would approximate a horizontal line (zero slope), implying than an increase in age would have no systematic bearing on self-esteem. Figure 14.3. Histogram and correlation plot of age and self-esteem After computing bivariate correlation, researchers are often interested in knowing whether the correlation is significant (i.e., a real one) or caused by mere chance. Answering such a question would require testing the following hypothesis: H0: r = 0 H1: r ≠ 0 H0 is called the null hypotheses, and H1 is called the alternative hypothesis (sometimes, also represented as Ha). Although they may seem like two hypotheses, H0 and H1 actually represent a single hypothesis since they are direct opposites of each other. We are interested in testing H1 rather than H0. Also note that H1 is a non-directional hypotheses since it does not specify whether r is greater than or less than zero. Directional hypotheses will be specified as H0: r ≤ 0; H1: r > 0 (if we are testing for a positive correlation). Significance testing of directional hypothesis is done using a one-tailed t-test, while that for non-directional hypothesis is done using a two-tailed t-test. Q u a n t i t a t i v e A n a l y s i s : D e s c r i p t i v e S t a t i s t i c s | 125 In statistical testing, the alternative hypothesis cannot be tested directly. Rather, it is tested indirectly by rejecting the null hypotheses with a certain level of probability. Statistical testing is always probabilistic, because we are never sure if our inferences, based on sample data, apply to the population, since our sample never equals the population. The probability that a statistical inference is caused pure chance is called the p-value. The p-value is compared with the significance level (α), which represents the maximum level of risk that we are willing to take that our inference is incorrect. For most statistical analysis, α is set to 0.05. A p-value less than α=0.05 indicates that we have enough statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis, and thereby, indirectly accept the alternative hypothesis. If p>0.05, then we do not have adequate statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis or accept the alternative hypothesis

Univariate Analysis Univariate analysis, or analysis of a single variable, refers to a set of statistical techniques that can describe the general properties of one variable. Univariate statistics include: (1) frequency distribution, (2) central tendency, and (3) dispersion. The frequency distribution of a variable is a summary of the frequency (or percentages) of individual values or ranges of values for that variable. For instance, we can measure how many times a sample of respondents attend religious services (as a measure of their “religiosity”) using a categorical scale: never, once per year, several times per year, about once a month, several times per month, several times per week, and an optional category for “did not answer.” If we count the number (or percentage) of observations within each category (except “did not answer” which is really a missing value rather than a category), and display it in the form of a table as shown in Figure 14.1, what we have is a frequency distribution. This distribution can also be depicted in the form of a bar chart, as shown on the right panel of Figure 14.1, with the horizontal axis representing each category of that variable and the vertical axis representing the frequency or percentage of observations within each category. Figure 14.1. Frequency distribution of religiosity With very large samples where observations are independent and random, the frequency distribution tends to follow a plot that looked like a bell-shaped curve (a smoothed bar chart of the frequency distribution) similar to that shown in Figure 14.2, where most observations are clustered toward the center of the range of values, and fewer and fewer observations toward the extreme ends of the range. Such a curve is called a normal distribution. Central tendency is an estimate of the center of a distribution of values. There are three major estimates of central tendency: mean, median, and mode. The arithmetic mean (often simply called the “mean”) is the simple average of all values in a given distribution. Consider a set of eight test scores: 15, 22, 21, 18, 36, 15, 25, 15. The arithmetic mean of these values is (15 + 20 + 21 + 20 + 36 + 15 + 25 + 15)/8 = 20.875. Other types of means include geometric mean (nth root of the product of n numbers in a distribution) and harmonic mean (the reciprocal of the arithmetic means of the reciprocal of each value in a distribution), but these means are not very popular for statistical analysis of social research data. 122 | S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h The second measure of central tendency, the median, is the middle value within a range of values in a distribution. This is computed by sorting all values in a distribution in increasing order and selecting the middle value. In case there are two middle values (if there is an even number of values in a distribution), the average of the two middle values represent the median. In the above example, the sorted values are: 15, 15, 15, 18, 22, 21, 25, 36. The two middle values are 18 and 22, and hence the median is (18 + 22)/2 = 20. Lastly, the mode is the most frequently occurring value in a distribution of values. In the previous example, the most frequently occurring value is 15, which is the mode of the above set of test scores. Note that any value that is estimated from a sample, such as mean, median, mode, or any of the later estimates are called a statistic. Dispersion refers to the way values are spread around the central tendency, for example, how tightly or how widely are the values clustered around the mean. Two common measures of dispersion are the range and standard deviation. The range is the difference between the highest and lowest values in a distribution. The range in our previous example is 36-15 = 21. The range is particularly sensitive to the presence of outliers. For instance, if the highest value in the above distribution was 85 and the other vales remained the same, the range would be 85-15 = 70. Standard deviation, the second measure of dispersion, corrects for such outliers by using a formula that takes into account how close or how far each value from the distribution mean: where σ is the standard deviation, xi is the ith observation (or value), µ is the arithmetic mean, n is the total number of observations, and Σ means summation across all observations. The square of the standard deviation is called the variance of a distribution. In a normally distributed frequency distribution, it is seen that 68% of the observations lie within one standard deviation of